Crash Code

"It is an insurance contract, but they've been very careful not to call it that because if it were insurance, it would be regulated. So they use a magic substitute word called a 'swap,' which by virtue of federal law is deregulated . . " [Michael Greenberger, Ex-CFTC Chair on 60 Minutes] Joe Turner: Boy, what is it with you people? You think not getting caught in a lie is the same thing as telling the truth? [Three Days of the Condor (1975)] :: :: :: Once upon a time there were vast resources of "capital" in a global market, substantial portions of which traded hands every day. IBM even built a global network of machines to assist in the transnational transactional black arts of shifting billions of dollars per second between invisible hands. Call it "air money", which like air guitar playing, involves people otherwise musically inept, wriggling, writhing, and wrist-waggling in a vain attempt to convince an audience the "instrument" is real - what they are hearing is actually produced by the air-ist. The "No Fret" illusion. This particular illusion is a global version of three-card-monty, originated for the specific purpose of enabling the amoral to engage in the illegal. Easy money, literally: make stuff up so complex not even the most learned solicitors would comprehend, build software to take the worry out of actually reading the "instrument", create an organization to pimp the ride, and "worm" your way into the world's financial system. What's the remedy? Wipe the drive, reboot the system. :: :: :: Image @ Hacker Ethic/IIT.edu

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JP (Pirate) Morgan

From the early 1980s when the interest rate swaps market began developing, the privately negotiated derivatives have grown tremendously in volume. . . the notional principal outstanding of swaps and other over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives, stood at $197 trillion at the end of December 2003. To lower the cost of processing derivatives and thereby increase the profitability of the business, JP Morgan (now JPMorganChase) in 1997 established a research project to develop the methodology by which these instruments can be traded using e-commerce technologies.
From the link above. Just the thought that ream-long derivatives were generated by physicists-mathematicians, read and understood by an extremely small group of people, then reduced to an icon on a desktop drives the proverbial stake through the heart of this particular form of darkness. If there is to be any relief at all, it will come in the form of lawyers who will parse and analyze the actual language, and who - being lawyers - may very well find the "instrument" had broken strings. In their parlance, "an illegal contract is unenforceable".

Silent Voices

How do we find the assistants and low level managers who saw where the entire thing was headed probably years and years ago? The ones who got ignored and sidelined and probably went into other professions because they were too smart to stay?

I've seen

a few scattered quotes, but not many. As the "latest" crisis evolves I would expect to see more. House has a hearing on Lehman Bros. going on today, maybe there. :-(

From the NYTimes today

In addition, household net worth, which greases spending, fell $6 trillion over the last year, with $1 trillion of that in just the last four weeks, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com.
POOF! -- $1 Trillion vanished in four weeks. Rest of article here.

Yes, but.

If the "market" recovers a few percentage points, by the end of the week it will be the opposite: "Household net worth rises a phenomenal $1 trillion in one week!!!!!!!!". Moody's mea culpa at the beginning of the fall means never having to listen to their obviously biased bullshit reporting again. Ever.

Of course!

dang dynamically updating software! The magic of changing yardsticks.

Blunt headlines making a comeback?

U.S. calls for unity as crisis wrecks markets And is Henry Paulson still Sec. of Treasury?...or is he the in-sourced co-CEO of Goldman Sachs? Maybe emeritus, perhaps? Still blows my mind.

"So your party is the only party that can save the country from the mess that your party created?" - attrib. Jon Stewart

I believe the term

you introduced me to, instead of "in-sourced" would be in this case... shadow.

Scale

Today's volume on the DOW: 6,430,790,144 Now that blows my mind. 'Specially because that's just one exchange, and all of those trades are regulated. Still trying to find how much "air-cash" trades hands in a single huge trading day across all exchanges. Welshman has the correct response today: trust the duck. Everything else is an illusion.

Wow, now that IS a mind-blower:

Now the last time I paid any degree of attention that was close, I seem to recall volumes being on the order of one-third that number? OTOH, maybe it's a trend-exhaustion signal?
Think of it this way. The markets have erased the Bush Administration from their cumulative history, right?


"So your party is the only party that can save the country from the mess that your party created?" - attrib. Jon Stewart

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