Ohio Poll Shows Clinton Leading Obama; McCain with Wide Lead

OhioNews Bureau ONB COLUMBUS: Ohio will hold its primary in eight days on Tuesday, March 4th. With voter turnout for the two Democratic presidential candidates expected to be high, as has been the case in state primaries and caucuses to date, which candidate Ohioans will favor may make or break their quest to win their party’s nomination for president. The latest Ohio Poll released Monday morning shows that Sen. Hillary Clinton holds an eight-point lead over Sen. Barrack Obama among likely Democratic primary voters. Among Republican candidates, Sen. John McCain leads his rival Mike Huckabee by a wide margin among likely Republican primary voters. Four-percent were undecided. The Ohio Poll, conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati, is an important predictor on the sentiment of voters on issues and candidates. OHIO DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY The Ohio Poll shows that Sen. Clinton leads Sen. Obama 47 to 39 percent among likely Democratic primary voters. Although he has suspended his campaign, an additional nine percent of likely Democratic primary voters intend to vote for John Edwards. Two percent of likely Democratic primary voters intend to vote for another candidate, including Ohioan Dennis Kucinich (who ended his campaign for president in January), and four percent are undecided. The poll revealed that three issues dominate Democratic primary voter decisions about the 2008 presidential race: the economy/jobs (41%), health care/health insurance (25%) and the war in Iraq/Iraq policy (16%). In the age of respondent’s category, Clinton and Obama are separated by a handful of percentage points among voters between 18 and 64. But in the 65 and over category, Clinton leads Obama 57 percent to 22 percent. In the category of race, African-Americans overwhelming favor Obama over Clinton, 75 percent to 22 percent. Among White voters, Clinton leads Obama, 51 percent to 34 percent. Results related to sex show Obama leads Clinton among males by a 3 point spread, while females go for Clinton 52 percent to 34 percent. Breaking down Ohio by geographic regions, Clinton holds big leads in Northeast, Northwest and Southeast Ohio, while Obama is favored in Central and Southwest Ohio. OHIO REPUBLICAN PRIMARY The Ohio Poll shows Sen. McCain leads former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 55 to 20 percent among likely Republican primary voters. Like their Democrat cousins, some Republicans will vote for candidates no longer in the race. Nine percent of likely Republican primary voters say they’ll vote for Mitt Romney, while five percent intend to vote for Ron Paul and eight percent will cast their ballot for defunct candidates like Rudy Giuliani or Fred Thompson. Three percent said they are still undecided as to how they will cast their vote March 4th. Issues high on the minds of Republican primary voters are the economy/jobs (30%), homeland security/national defense (16%), the war in Iraq/Iraq policy (9%), health care/health insurance (8%), abortion (7%), taxes (6%), Immigration (4%) and Terrorism/war on terror (2%). OHIO POLL METHODOLOGY The latest Ohio Poll, conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati. The Ohio Poll is sponsored by the University of Cincinnati. The Poll was conducted from February 21 through February 24, 2008. These findings are based on the most recent Ohio Poll conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati from February 21 through February 24, 2008. A random sample of 529 Democratic likely voters from throughout the state was interviewed by telephone. In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 4.3 percent. A random sample of 312 Republican likely voters from throughout the state was interviewed by telephone. In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 5.5 percent. In addition to sampling error, there are other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or context effects that can introduce error or bias. Results reported for subgroups have the potential for somewhat larger variation than those for the entire population. In the latest Ohio Poll, likely Democratic and Republican primary voters were asked their preferences among the candidates that will appear on their respective primary ballots. John Michael Spinelli is a former Ohio Statehouse government and political reporter and business columnist. He now serves as the OhioNews Bureau Chief for ePluribus Media Journal. Find ONB archives here. If readers have a news tip or story idea about Ohio politics or government, contact the OhioNews Bureau at: ohionews@epluribusmedia.org