Strait of Hormuz

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If you are familiar with the trilogy "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy", you know the Guide often packs great wisdom into a couple words. We needn't read very far in the trilogy to find sage advice regarding last week's naval encounter in the Gulf. The words "Don't Panic" appear on its cover, after all, and in large friendly letters. If you're in the mood for a hitchhiker's attempt to make sense of recent events in the Gulf, then slam down a Gargle-Blaster, pocket a scoop of peanuts, and grab your towel. It is easy to see why people are worried over this incident. President Bush is far too eager to start wars on far too feeble pretexts. Worry here is a healthy state of mind. Panic is, not so much. Unfortunately, this event got off to a panicy start thanks to several "Tonkin Gulf II" blogs. These bloggers meant well, but their conclusions are based much more on emotion than reason. Now is a time to Not Panic.

This is why I reacted to the report that Iranian boats had “provoked” US ships in the Strait of Hormuz with a “WTF????”. Let’s look at a few things here, just to make heads or tails of things.

• Iran halted its nuclear weapons program back in 2003, and there is no evidence that they are much closer to developing a weapon anytime soon.
• Ayatollah Khamenei recently indicated that he would be willing to restore diplomatic relations with the US in the future.
• There were recent reports that Iran was cooperating with the US in Iraq with respect to the decrease in violence.
• Iran has recently divested from the US dollar - a move that is more threatening to the US than many of the items that we have been hearing for years.
• To further keep its independence from the US (and strengthen its own position in the global economy), Iran has recently made deals with China on oil, has been cozy with Russia for a number of years and has been making trade deals with Nicaragua - not to mention potential deals with Venezuela as well.