Dark Horses, Lame Ducks and the Nature of the Political Beast

In his Dec. 31st entry Best Bet for Next President: Prediction Markets Justin Wolfers offers an interesting analysis on the political climate going into the primaries.

According to Wolfers, in the "general election, the markets are titling strongly pro-Democratic, ranking them a 61% chance of taking the White House." This would seem to indicate that Bush is not just a lame duck president, the GOP is a lame duck party.