Dark Horses, Lame Ducks and the Nature of the Political Beast
In his Dec. 31st entry Best Bet for Next President: Prediction Markets Justin Wolfers offers an interesting analysis on the political climate going into the primaries.
According to Wolfers, in the "general election, the markets are titling strongly pro-Democratic, ranking them a 61% chance of taking the White House." This would seem to indicate that Bush is not just a lame duck president, the GOP is a lame duck party.
With Iowa kicking off the primary season, the time for speculation is almost over ... and there doesn't appear to be a clear favorite in either party. Between gaffs and negative campaigning front-runners manage to lose and gain advantage almost daily. With Huckabee and Romney in a stranglehold will McCain surge? Will Edwards prevail, as Obama and Clinton duke it out?
We have had several excellent campaign coverage commentaries posted:
- Intrepid Liberal Journal posted an excellent analysis of the candidates in his commentary Sitting On the Fence Is Creasing My Activist Butt
- jamess brings us News from the Edwards Campaign with a little help from NCDem Amy and cosbo
- icebergslim brings us This week with Barak Obama
- Recent polls here on ePluribus Media asked, "Who do you think will win the Iowa Primary?" for both Democrats and Republicans. The results show an Edwards/Huckabee contest in 2008.
The Wolfers article offers an interesting analysis on the potential outcome of the primaries, based on "experimental prediction markets [...] established at the University of Iowa" and compares this data to polling results.
[...] polling data for Republican candidates is much more consistent with the markets, suggesting a four-way race in which Messrs. Giuliani and Romney are the leading candidates, with Messrs. McCain and Huckabee not too far behind. The markets predicted Mr. Huckabee's surge a few weeks before the polls, and it appears to have come at the expense of Mr. Romney. The big story this week, though, is John McCain, who has resurrected his campaign. The market now judges him to be a clearly credible alternative.
On the Democratic side, national polls suggest a landslide for Ms. Clinton, while the markets suggest that the race is still very competitive, with a one-in-three chance that Obama or Edwards will ultimately win the nomination.