Ohio Poll Shows Men back McCain, Women Go for Obama, Clinton
OhioNews Bureau: UPDATE
ONB COLUMBUS: The latest Ohio Poll, conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati and released Wednesday, shows that the fall race for president will be a squeaker in bellwether Ohio, and that the split between genders shows men backing Sen. John McCain, while women favor either Sens. Obama or Clinton.
But in contrast to the tight findings of the latest Ohio Poll, a A state-wide phone survey done on behalf of WCMH-TV Columbus, WKYC-TV Cleveland, WCPO-TV Cincinnati, and WHIO-TV Dayton by SurveyUSA,
posted at Buckeye State Blog, shows that in a general election today in Ohio, McCain would lose Ohio to Clinton by 10 points and to Obama by three points.
The demographic breakdowns are interesting. In a hypothetical Clinton vs. McCain match-up in Ohio, McCain and Clinton would be tied amongst men, while Clinton would win women by 19 points. Clinton also wins all age groups against McCain. Whereas, in a Obama vs. McCain match-up, Men prefer McCain to Obama 50-42, and while Obama would still win women by 14 points, the only age group he wins against McCain is the under 35s. McCain would have a slight advantage amongst the middle-aged, while the two would be tied in the over 55 category.
And, interestingly enough, 21% of self-identified Democrats in the survey say they would vote for John McCain if his opponent was Barack Obama, vs. only 10% if his opponent was Hillary Clinton. Source poll results are here. [Courtesy of Jerid Kertz, BSB]
BELLWETHER OHIO STILL A BATTLEGROUND
In a hypothetical match-up between Obama, a Democrat, and McCain, a Republican, the Illinois senator is in a virtual dead heat with the Arizona senator, notwithstanding the five percent who are either undecided or pan to vote for another candidate, which could be consumer activist Ralph Nader, now that he’s declared his candidacy, or New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has yet to do so.
In a similar hypothetical match-up between Clinton, a Democrat, and McCain, the race is also tight but McCain enjoys a four percentage point lead, with two percent undecided or planning to vote for another candidate.
When poll results are viewed from the perspective of gender, a majority of women choose Obama or Clinton while a majority of men choose McCain.
Ohio Poll Methodology
These findings are based on the most recent Ohio Poll conducted by the Institute for
Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati from February 21 through February 24, 2008.
A random sample of 1049 registered voters from throughout the state was interviewed by telephone. In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 3.0 percent.
John Michael Spinelli is a former Ohio Statehouse government and political reporter and business columnist. He now serves as the OhioNews Bureau Chief for ePluribus Media Journal. Find ONB archives here.
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