SNAP! "White Shift" for Obama in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida

SNAP! "White Shift" for Obama in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida

Obama on the way to a standing room only speech to thousands at
George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia Image cc

A 900,000 Vote Shift to Obama

Michael Collins
"Scoop" Independent News

(Wash. DC) An amazing political and social event is under way in three critical swing states. Virginia and North Carolina show a major shift by white voters benefiting Sen. Barack Obama. Florida whites are also moving but at a somewhat slower rate. The total number of white votes shifting from McCain to Obama is around 900,000 currently That number will vary depending on turnout and campaign events. The exact size of the vote shift is important but it's not nearly as significant as the "white shift" phenomena.

This "white shift" is the topic of a just released survey by Public Policy Polling of Raleigh North Carolina. The decades-long pattern in Southern presidential contests consisted of heavy white support for the Republican presidential candidate consistently defeating the remainder of white voters plus the 90% support by black citizens consistently voting for Democrats.

For the first time in decades, there are signs of cracks in Richard Nixon's Southern Strategy This divisive approach may soon be put to rest where it belongs, in the dust bin of history.

In the essay accompanying the poll, Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling made it clear that the "white shift" was moving south. He said:

"The conventional wisdom is that Barack Obama is doing so well this year due to the likelihood of increased turnout and support from black voters and young voters. Those things are certainly important, but a strong majority of Obama's gains relative to Democratic performance in 2004, even in the South, can be attributed to increased support from white voters. Concern over the economy and the direction of the country over the last few years are outweighing any trepidation white voters, particularly conservative Democrats and independents, might have about choosing a black man. (author's emphasis)
Tom Jensen, Oct. 11, 2008

It's a clear indication that a "White Shift" is taking place right now in these three critical swing states. White voters are indeed moving to Sen. Obama. The chart below shows some of the results from the survey demonstrating the change.

The dramatic shift in projected 2008 white voting is evident for each state.
It demonstrates the potential for a strong 2008 "White Shift" to Sen. Obama.
Produced by Public Policy Polling: Introduction Report link below:
White Voters in the South: An Introduction by Tom Jensen, Oct. 11, 2008

The "white shift" adds election protection provided by the critical category of voters discussed previously in "Scoop" Independent News, "net new" Democratic primary voters: Michael Collins: Election 2008 - The Difficulty Stealing It This Time. The chart below shows 2004 and 2008 Democratic Party turnout plus 2008 Republican primary turnout for the three states surveyed by Public Policy Polling. "Net new" primary voters are those voters who represent the difference between 2004 and 2008 Democratic turnout.

+ North Carolina ("NC+") above did not have a 2004 presidential primary.
The figure used for "2004 Dem - N.C." is an estimate.
See Michael Collins - Election 2008: The Difficulty of Stealing it This Time

The estimated number of new voter registrations for these states is around 1.7 million. Assuming a 2 to 1 advantage in registrations for Obama and a 65% turnout, this represents a potential for 750,000 more Democratic voters for the three states. The "net new" primary voters in these states totaled 2.3 million, a much more dedicated group than newly registered voters; voters who will show up on Election Day. These are largely discrete sets of voting groups. From the Public Policy Polling analysis, it seems as though the "white shift" voters represent a third discrete voting group

"White Shift" - White voters in North Carolina attend an Obama rally.
Image cc

Net New Democratic Primary Voters, White Shift Voters, and Newly Registered Voters Combined Form a Solid Defense Against Election Fraud

While the newly registered voters are subject to all the voter suppression strategies available, the 2.3 million new primary voters are not. They've voted, they're registered without any doubt, and they're not likely to be denied their vote. These new primary voters represent about 13% of the general election vote in the three states mentioned (assuming a 20% increase in voter turnout in 2008). That's not 13% of the Democratic vote. It's 13% of the entire estimated vote total.

The white shift voters are another major factor that will help reduce the potential for election fraud. As whites, they're not the target of race based voter suppression. Having paid enough attention to the campaign to consciously shift their allegiance, they seem likely to vote in large numbers. The white shift voting population moving to Obama represent nearly 1.0 million votes for the three states discussed (extrapolating from the Public Policy Polling numbers).

The only fraud strategy left to counter this is a massive manipulation of electronic voting machines and tabulators (which are often one and the same). The risk of committing electronic fraud for these states is extraordinary. Even a cursory examination of the reported totals would produce a variety of contradictions that would unravel the crime.

According to three recent national polls, terrorism is the most important issue for 8% and 10% of registered voters nationwide, while the same polls show that the economy is the top campaign issue for 48% to 57% of registered voters. Osama bin Laden would need to do a whirlwind tour of Virginia and North Carolina endorsing Obama to generate a McCain-Palin win.

Given these numbers and others from around the country, Sen. McCain might be thinking of the hypothetical posed by the former governor of Louisiana Edwin Edwards (D). Remarking on his 1983 race for governor, Edwards said that the only way he could lose would be if he were "caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy." That's not likely this year.

A victory based, in part, on white shift in just Virginia and North Carolina would be an irony of major proportions. In 2004, two questionable results raised serious questions about the notion of a Bush victory The 2004 "red shift" in the swing states was based on last minute shifts by white voters. The fictitious 4.0 million new white voters in "big cities" (from the media consortium's final exit poll) were the second factor. These "white ghosts" were confabulated by the media consortium's unbelievable and incorrect exit polling result that showed "big city" turnout up 66% for 2004. In fact, turnout was up between 12% to 15 % - ( See Chart 1).

We're now facing a shift of major proportions in consistently Republican states in the South coming from white conservative males fed up with the poor economy and the direction of the nation along with "net new" primary voters in the Democratic Party primaries.


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Here in Brazoria County Texas I have little hope the county will go for Obama, but it's gonna be interesting. Seems like the economy has lit a fire under peoples arses... I can only hope.

Amazing what happens when people lose money... out of their 401k, their houses depreciate, they lose their jobs and can't afford to pay the bills....suddenly policy matters.

Don't knock it. Better late than never!


But it'd be a heckuva lot easier if folks of all colors just made a little more effort to pay attention instead of kicking back in the lazy boy and letting someone on television tell them how to think and vote in the television personality's best interests.

I trust a Lazy Boy more than any talking head but I'd be troubled if a talking head was in the Lazy Boy.

I'm praying that two things, minor in the big picture, return:

1) the Fairness Doctrine (just to hear Rush etc. scream) and
2) an investigation of Murdoch's acquisition of all those TV properties.

If McCain gets it, we're doomed.

"Furthest from him is best, whom reason hath equaled, force hath made supreme above his equals." Milton

Someone made this same point and noted that there was no talk of this issue in the campaign. I agree with you entirely. Who said, 'nothing like a death sentence to focus one's mind.' Grim but it's late;)

"Furthest from him is best, whom reason hath equaled, force hath made supreme above his equals." Milton

Documented the power of "net new" primary voters.
They're up in all sorts of important points. These states, Florida, Wisconsin. These new 2008 Obama primary voters are immune from voter suppression etc. They're registered and have every expectation to vote. So here's what Texas looks like

2008 TX Dem Primary 2,925,210 2004 Dem Primary
2008 TX Rep Primary 1,299,703
2004 TX Dem Primary 767,793
2,157,417 "Net new" Democratic primary voters

Who are those "net new" Democratic voters. They're young, they don't show up at primaries, e.g. 2004. And they're highly motivated. Much more likely to return to the polls than newly registered voters, for example.

Are they polled - well if they young < 30 or so, they don't have land lines, just cells. They text more than they talk. So you tell me - there's huge block of new voters, 2.2 million in the great state of Texas and a big chunk of them may not show up in pre election polls.

It will be better than 2008, that's for sure. Maybe even a ... well, who knows;)

Election 2008: The Difficulty Stealing It This Time

There were 4.9 million voters in the 2008 Democratic Primary and 2.6 million in 2004. That’s 2.3 million “net new” Democratic primary voters for 2008. + North Carolina had state caucuses in 2004. The 2004 Democratic primary figure is an estimate.
(Source CNN 2004, 2008)

In the mid and southeastern Atlantic states, there were nearly 4.9 million Democrats voting in primaries compared to 2.2 million Republicans. With the exception of Delaware and Maryland, the states above are traditionally Republican states. Democrats dwarfed Republicans in 2008 primary turnout. In addition, Democratic turnout nearly doubled from 2004 to 2008. Democratic primary votes increased from 2.6 million in 2004 to 4.9 million in 2008 (using the estimate for N.C. 2004), an increase of 2.3 million “net new” Democratic primary voters.

"Furthest from him is best, whom reason hath equaled, force hath made supreme above his equals." Milton