Throwing Cold Water on Premature thoughts of an Obama Landslide

Okay, I am noticing some actually giddy glee creeping in. But I am still worried. I have two concerns.

One: Voter Suppression
I see voter registration stories such as Avahome's Nevada ACORN Raid info and Jamess Voter Register commentary, today's New York Times story AnnieK cited about HAVA not exactly Helping America Vote. On Jezebel, there's an interesting round up of stories on caging, suppression and voter obstruction that is going on at this very moment. Even over on MyLeftNutmeg, Aldon Hynes notes on the 7000 out 9000 voter registration cards that got tossed in Bridgeport, CT last week.

So we have to be watchful. Was it not Jefferson or Adams who said, "The price of liberty is eternal vigilance"?

Two: On Race and Polling
Will they really vote Democratic?On a new front, there's the issue of what voters will really do once they've "drawn" the curtain on the voting booth. George Packer's October 13thThe Hardest Vote article from the The New Yorker does what so many big city newspapers don't do these days, it takes an 'on the scene' look at the lives of folks living in hard times America to see what they think:

Roger Catt, a retired farmer and warehouse worker, who lives in a small town near Eau Claire, Wisconsin, characterized the choice this way: “McCain is more of the same, and Obama is the end of life as we know it.”

And what about the soft racism of "not like us"? Packer explains the discrepancies between polls and actual numbers of votes cast:

This statistical glitch is different from the Bradley Effect, named for the black mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley, who lost the California governorship in 1982 despite polls that had showed him in the lead, apparently because a small percentage of respondents would rather lie to a pollster than admit to opposing a candidate on the ground of his race. Still, the Bradley Effect and the Kohut Lacuna produce the same conclusion: a black candidate is likely to fare worse than preëlection polls would suggest.

Still, the article was written before this last week of horrendous economic news, and maybe, maybe, maybe the fruit of the Republican Economic Policies -- that sour, dried, hard fruit -- is finally tasting bitter in our mouths:

When will the class war ever finally drown out the culture war, if not in 2008? Under Republican rule in Washington, wages have stayed flat while income inequality has increased; the numbers of uninsured have soared; unemployment recently passed six per cent, its highest level since the early nineteen-nineties; gas and heating-oil prices have doubled, while basic food prices have gone up by fifty per cent; and the country’s financial system has come closer to collapse than at any moment since 1929. More profoundly, Republican dogma no longer offers convincing solutions, and in some cases it doesn’t even acknowledge the problems. (Income inequality has long been considered a nonissue in conservative free-market circles.) The question that Ronald Reagan asked voters to such devastating effect in 1980, when the white working class began turning away from Democrats—“Are you better off than you were four years ago?”—should, in theory, produce an equal and opposite effect this year.

So what do you guys think? Am I a perpetual worry wart, or is there cause for restraint of premature joyful celebration?

I guess I just feel there is much work to do.

0
No votes yet

Comments

Is Bling Over?
Just in case you'd like the first paragraph:

Francesco Trapani, chief executive of Bulgari Group, is cutting back on the fixed costs of his jet-setting lifestyle. The jewelry, luxury-goods and hotel magnate recently sold his 137-foot yacht, the "Christianne B," and he's holding off on buying any more homes. Even his bespoke Micocci shirt was slightly frayed at the collar last week -- a fact he acknowledged with an apologetic smile.

gotta love The New Yorker !

'nuff said:

The Republican disaster begins at home. Even before taking into account whatever fantastically expensive plan eventually emerges to help rescue the financial system from Wall Street’s long-running pyramid schemes, the economic and fiscal picture is bleak. During the Bush Administration, the national debt, now approaching ten trillion dollars, has nearly doubled. Next year’s federal budget is projected to run a half-trillion-dollar deficit, a precipitous fall from the seven-hundred-billion-dollar surplus that was projected when Bill Clinton left office. Private-sector job creation has been a sixth of what it was under President Clinton. Five million people have fallen into poverty. The number of Americans without health insurance has grown by seven million, while average premiums have nearly doubled. Meanwhile, the principal domestic achievement of the Bush Administration has been to shift the relative burden of taxation from the rich to the rest. For the top one per cent of us, the Bush tax cuts are worth, on average, about a thousand dollars a week; for the bottom fifth, about a dollar and a half. The unfairness will only increase if the painful, yet necessary, effort to rescue the credit markets ends up preventing the rescue of our health-care system, our environment, and our physical, educational, and industrial infrastructure.

I'm with you. I saw Republicans steal two elections in a row. I sincerely believe that if it's close they will find a way to steal it.

I guess the other way to look at it, as Kos described below today, is that even if we do feel like we are winning, winning isn't enough. If we're already winning then try to 'break their backs'. I think the genius in this is that if it turns out our position was not as strong as we thought for whatever reason and it brings a narrow victory, great. If we find out in the end that we could have relaxed and won anyway and the extra effort turns what would have been a win into a slaughter, even better.

With either approach the call to action is the same. Don't let up.

See, here's the deal -- we're going to win the White House, we're going to win big in the Senate, and we're going to rack up big gains in the House. Republicans know this and are preparing for the worst. Now think of 2004 -- we really thought Kerry was going to pull it off. Remember that? And remember how utterly devastated we were when Bush pulled it off? The pain was so much worse because we expected to win.

So with conservatives bracing for the worse, they won't experience the kind of pain we did. Not unless we deliver a defeat even worse than their worst nightmares. And I'll be honest with you -- I want them to hurt as much as we did. I want their spirits crushed, their backs broken.

gotta agree... Welshman did a post like that once... in the last second the Brits won the game.

So what do you guys think? Am I a perpetual worry wart, or is there cause for restraint of premature joyful celebration?

I guess I just feel there is much work to do.

It's absolutely critical that people not assume a done deal. I've spent the last four years learning some of what went into the theft of 2004 and who the players were.

Those players are on McCain's team, exactly the same Bush-Cheney players were merged into his campaign at the top when he assumed the nomination, in March. Meanwhile the key operatives had already been long on the payroll before that.

Velvetrevolution.us has offered $100,000 reward for information on Mike Connell's activities working inside the IT networks of the State of Florida in 2000 and the State of Ohio in 2004. They called on John McCain's campaign to fire Connell since, according to his retained law firm (including chair of the Republican National Lawyers Assn) he won't appear to answer questions on these matters before the election.

Allen Raymond is the GOP operative who has done Federal prison time for the New Hampshire phone-jamming operation of 2002 designed to keep Democrats away from the polls. He was recruited by top principals of the RNC through DCI Group's operation. In "How to Rig an Election" (2008), this is how Raymond describes those who hired him, verbatim:

At the time, DCI was (and it still is) a very successful grassroots telemarketing and lobbying company that ran all the major black-bag operations for the Republican Party. Under Bush, it has become the White House's external political arm.

The agenda became crystal clear when Schmidt ascended to take over day-to-day ops for McCain2008 a few months ago: Schmidt was the White House liaison to the Swiftboat veterans in 2004.

It's no coincidence that they are ramping up voter suppression efforts (some even appearing to be illegal) and attacks on ACORN, right NOW.

And with financial markets in progressive meltdown, McCain's campaign partners in the White House (hint: they lied us into Iraq with the figment of a mushroom cloud) have at their fingertips the leverage to manipulate public perception at a very sensitive time.

They can, have done, and will do whatever it takes.

The margin has to be massive, sleep after the election. Just do it!



"So your party is the only party that can save the country from the mess that your party created?" - attrib. Jon Stewart

-----
"I hope we shall crush in its birth the aristocracy of our moneyed corporations which dare already to challenge our government in a trial of strength, and bid defiance to the laws of our country." - Thomas Jefferson

Please explain the Connell / DCI connection and thus the Republican National Lawyers Association's less that trustworthy relationship with this lobbying group.

Thanks!

pretty much always have some sort of RNLA involvement.

Look at GOP lawyers who, eg., had face time for American Center for Voting Rights, Thor Hearne, or William Todd, who represented Ohio Chamber of Commerce / Citizens for a Strong Ohio in the illegal campaign advetisement fight that Ohio Attorney Cliff Arnebeck has fought since 2000, and you'll find RNLA.

When Ohio Chamber of Commerce was finally forced to disclose the identities of illegal funders who were behind Citizens for a Strong Ohio, several important DCI | New Media clients were the key funders behind Rove's effort to unseat Ohio's last Democratic Supreme Court Justice. Remarkably (not), clients whose interests converged through Big Tobacco, like US Chamber of Commerce, American Tort Reform Association, Phillip Morris, et al. were key players.

Bradblog.com has put alot of effort towards exposing the ACVR story including the magically disappearing Thor Hearne, of Bush-Cheney fame.

Brad and others are also pushing back against the farce of the ACORN-as-voter-fraud perp story.

In 2003, take a look at who was recognized by RNLA for major sponsorship, for example:

Major sponsors of RNLA events during 2003 included Deutcshe Post World Net USA, Blank Rome LLP (major Swiftboat Vet player there), Greenberg Traurig LLP (Florida 2000, Abramoff, etc), Wiley Rein & Fielding LLP, Baker & Hostetler LLP (!!!!), McCann Medicine & Law, P.A., Patton Boggs LLP (Swiftboat Vets, Florida 2000, Progress for America, etc), Spencer & Klein LLP, Husch & Eppenberger LLC, and Bell, McAndrews, Hiltachk & Davidian, LLP (California redistricting). RNLA thanks them for their generous support, which made possible the significant organizational advances in the RNLA this year.

Sponsorship of the 2004 National Summer Election School.
The National Summer Election School is a professionally-taught school for attorneys who wish to receive basic or advanced election law training. The course work spans two days, and provides instruction on ballot access, election management, election challenges and the organization and management of poll watchers. The utmost care is taken to provide instruction that stresses the protection of the constitutional right to vote and, specifically, the avoidance of any activity which somehow limits or otherwise discourages the right of anyone to vote, including but not limited to racial minorities. The event is closed to the public, and attendance of lawyers is highly restricted to those affiliated with the Republican Party entities.
Participation in sponsorships of the school is one of the few direct ways in which persons and firms can upgrade the quality of the electoral process.

A followup letter after the fact of that Election School reiterated the perennial RNC farce of "voter fraud" that Rove, et al have hammered home as a party platform:

In addition, the School presented ethical issues for lawyers involved in representing clients on election law issues. The Election Law School was recently noted in an article in the New York Times. Interestingly, in the article, which can be found at http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/19/politics/campaign/19VOTE.html, the Democrats are not described as holding any similar high level, continuing legal education training for attorneys. The only “training” for Democrat lawyers that the article mentions is training to “finalize strategy, tactics and assignments.” Those of us involved in elections in the past, especially in places like the City of St. Louis, are well aware of the tactics that opposition attorneys have used in order to reach their electoral goal. I remember all too well the lawsuit in St. Louis in 2000, where the plaintiff, to support his request that the polls be kept open after normal closing time, claimed that he could not vote because of long lines at the polls. It turned out the plaintiff was deceased and had been dead for some time. The next plaintiff they tried to substitute for the dead plaintiff turned out to have actually voted earlier in the day.

In any case, the RNLA is behind almost all of these sorts of efforts. It's no wonder they'd have someone so prominent as Todd's firm behind Connell's avoidance of subpoena for election fraud related issues.

We won't begin to get into all of the judicially-relevant things in which DCI Group was involved. Or such as Committee for a Fair Judiciary (CFJ), the client of Connell's current partner, Becki Donatelli, except to say that CFJ was Donatelli's hosting client -- on her servers -- while Donatelli, herself, worked inside of the Senate firewall when the Democrats' Senate Judiciary files were 'hacked'.

CFJ just happened to be one of the 'memo leakers'.



"So your party is the only party that can save the country from the mess that your party created?" - attrib. Jon Stewart

-----
"I hope we shall crush in its birth the aristocracy of our moneyed corporations which dare already to challenge our government in a trial of strength, and bid defiance to the laws of our country." - Thomas Jefferson

Your comment could be a commentary all on its own! Thanks for explaining.

Don't forget, Bush-Cheney committed -- including war crimes -- among the grandest of crimes in half a century or more.

What does it take to cover your ass for that kind of thing?

Army, Air Force poised for action HERE



"So your party is the only party that can save the country from the mess that your party created?" - attrib. Jon Stewart

-----
"I hope we shall crush in its birth the aristocracy of our moneyed corporations which dare already to challenge our government in a trial of strength, and bid defiance to the laws of our country." - Thomas Jefferson

My brother asked me after the 1999 election, "How bad could it be? Bush has four years and he has to get Congress and the Supreme Court to go along... so how bad could it be? "

Amongst all the 'For Sale' signs on his street in his northern central valley California town are lots of Obama signs.

But the question still haunts me... "How bad could it be?"

Keep working to dump the Republicans.

--Lefty!!!

--Lefty!!!

Avahome mentions in the comments over on Buzzflash that absentee ballot numbers are up in Alabama -- that's good news, protection as it were against electronic glitches and "missing" voter registrations.

Paper trails.

A couple of resources for related information.

One of the wider-reaching resources I've come upon for keeping up on these topics is the mailing list associated with "News From the Underground" which is edited by Prof. Mark Crispin Miller.

I'm usually deep in the weeds of detail that makes these stories and don't have lots of time to sift the masses of information everyday so it's very handy to have it jump into my inbox on a regular basis.

And Bradblog's regular "Daily Voting News" is a critical eye focussed at high resolution on the mosaic of complex issues that make up a national election.

Right at the moment, Larissa Alexandrovna, of RawStory.com has done a nice job of tying many of the issues together in "How afraid is Karl Rove about Ohio 2004 election fraud evidence coming out?"

And RoveCybergate.com has taken up the banner pushing legal authorities to help get answers from Karl Rove and Mike Connell. Bob Fitrakis is part of the legal team pushing the case who comments on related issues at FreePress.org.

There are other excellent sources such as Election Fraud News and, of course, we try to keep up on the hidden technology and astroturf players. I'll post the most recent (but not up to date yet) compilation of ePluribus and friends related links in posts following this one.



"So your party is the only party that can save the country from the mess that your party created?" - attrib. Jon Stewart

-----
"I hope we shall crush in its birth the aristocracy of our moneyed corporations which dare already to challenge our government in a trial of strength, and bid defiance to the laws of our country." - Thomas Jefferson

Remember just who is running the works for John McCain's campaign:

Mike Connell's Friends of John McCain 2008 (from Connell, Rove, and the GOP Boys, Positioned for McCain?)

As we face the 2008 election, these concerns about the tabulating of votes in 2000 and 2004 may seem so yesterday, but consider the following list of characters who are currently active in John McCain’s campaign and see if there are any of them ring familiar. 15

From June and July Monthly Disbursements by JOHN MCCAIN 2008 INC. (FEC Committee ID #: C00430470)

CAMPAIGN SOLUTIONS - Becki Donatelli; collaborator and partner with Connell in Connell-Donatelli, Inc. aka CD Inc.

CD INC. - partnership with Connell formed directly after Campaign Solutions client, Fair Judiciary, was linked to leaks of 'hacked' Democratic Senate Judiciary Cmte memos.

DOUGLAS DAVENPORT, - DCI Group principal who, with Doug Goodyear, 'stepped down' from McCain's campaign after news of DCI Group lobbying for Burma broke.

DIRECT RESPONSE GROUP - one of the many faces of primarily DCI Group principals with 2005 AZ corporation filings indicating Doug Goodyear, Tom Synhorst, Charles Gately, Christopher Holt and Jack Padovano as then-principals. fka GPS VENTURES

EDONATION.COM - online transaction, Becki Donatelli.

NEW MEDIA COMMUNICATIONS INC - Mike Connell

SMARTECHCORP - Tennessee based Internet services provider for RNC. Hosting services for outsourced Election Night Results reporting system of Connell and Ohio SOS Ken Blackwell in 2004 and 2006. Jeff Averbeck.

YUMA SOLUTIONS INC - Florida company, renamed from Gencom Network following Roy Cales' divestiture of ownership interest. Services provider to Tidewaterinc.com, et al.



"So your party is the only party that can save the country from the mess that your party created?" - attrib. Jon Stewart

-----
"I hope we shall crush in its birth the aristocracy of our moneyed corporations which dare already to challenge our government in a trial of strength, and bid defiance to the laws of our country." - Thomas Jefferson

I've been trying to collect and update a set of links to relevant work related to this story in a table here.

It's been my intent to organize it by date and to ensure all the contributions of OhioNewsBureau and the much larger body of other folks' work is included as well.

For example, a new item adds some very substantial information (Will Mike Connell Avoid Testifying on Cyber Rigging?) including Connell's embedding inside the firewalls of the House Judiciary Commmittee and Department of Justice Internets while catering to Rep. Heather Wilson's new needs for email services and the White House needs for email destruction services in the midst of the US Attorneys purges and before that story broke.

Then, the White House Internet director reported a comprehensive makeover of the WH site during that period the USAs scandal was breaking and as he was leaving the WH. David Almacy worked for DCI Group's TechCentralStation, GovTech Solutions, and Connell before he came to the WH.

Lots of work to be done yet but this list and one at RoveCybergate.com, together, probably represent the two largest collections of such work.

Once I get past my current task, maybe I'll attempt to do all of this but hey, don't forget that our Ohio work made it into a film reviewed by Roger Ebert, with a three-stars rating!

Previous stories

Recent stories

Friends' stories

Protecting Elections



"So your party is the only party that can save the country from the mess that your party created?" - attrib. Jon Stewart

-----
"I hope we shall crush in its birth the aristocracy of our moneyed corporations which dare already to challenge our government in a trial of strength, and bid defiance to the laws of our country." - Thomas Jefferson