Weekly News October 8-14, 2018: All Midterms, All Week

After the last couple of weeks it is easy to just want to curl up into a little ball and cry, but DON'T! We need all hands on deck in this final stretch to the midterm elections. With four weeks left until the midterm elections, we have work left to do. There are many ways you can help (besides bitching on social media).

  1. Talk to your neighbors,
  2. put up yard signs,
  3. phonebank,
  4. door knock,
  5. write notecards ... you can sign up here
  6. do something!

Get angry, get inspired, get whatever you need to be to WORK for results.

Phone banking for endangered Dem candidates is also a good way to help with the effort in these final weeks. This election is one of the most important in our lifetime and putting extra effort into this final push is a positive way to help.

The following list of candidates are Demoicratic incumbents or challengers that need our support. and the URL to sign up to help with this final push in the campaigns.

  1. Heidi Heitcamp (ND) (Currently behind in polls with 48.1%)
  2. Bill Nelson (FL) (currently leading in polls with 51%)
  3. Claire McCaskill (MO) (currently leading in polls with 49.2%)
  4. Joe Donnelly (IN) (currently leading in polls with 51.3%)
  5. John Tester (MT) (currently leading in polls with 52%)
  6. Joe Manchin (WV) (currently leading in polls with 52.9%) (I may link to his campaign website tomorrow, but today I am still pissed at him).
  7. Tammy Baldwin (WI) (currently leading in polls with 56.7%)
  8. Sherrod Brown (OH) (currently leading in polls with 55.7%)
  9. Jackie Rosen (NV) (currently leading in polls with 48.9% - against incumbent (R) Dean Heller)
  10. Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) (currently leading in polls with 50.0%)
  11. Beto O'Rourke (TX) (Currently behind in polls with 47.3%)

Heidi Heitcamp is listed first for a reason. She deserves our support after her act of uncommon political bravery in voting No on Kavanaugh. Nevada and Missouri are ranked "tossup" and we REALLY need to bring these two home.

The Math

The numbers behind the Dems taking the Senate (it doesn't look promising). The Dems have 23 seats that are not up for re-election. They need 51 seats for a slim majority. Below is the breakdown of the projections for each category:

  • Solid DEM - 18
  • Likely DEM - 5 - Montana,  Minnesota, Indiana, New Jersey, West Virginia
  • Lean DEM - 2 - Arizona, Florida
  • Toss-up - 2 - Nevada, Missouri
  • Lean REP - 3 - North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas

If we take all of the projected "Solid DEM", "Likely DEM", "Lean DEM" and add them to the 23 seats we hold puts us at 48 seats - a LOSS of ONE. We need to bring home the toss-ups and lean REP to control the Senate - keep in mind that one "Toss-up" and one "Lean REP" are currently Dem seats.

All polling numbers are from fivethirtyeight.com

And remember -- CHECK YOUR VOTER REGISTRATION We need every vote to count.

*This post will be updated throughout the week.

This Week's Headlines: 
10/08/2018

 That means that when, say, 84 percent of Republican women say they approve of Trump and his actions, or 69 percent of Republican women say they support Kavanaugh, or 64 percent say they, like Trump, don’t find Ford very “credible,” those percentages represent a small and shrinking slice of American women.

10/08/2018

Control of the House in 2018 will be decided by a small number of Swing Districts, places where the last election was decided by a thin margin. Join your closest Swing District team to hear about things you can do to support Democrats—and defeat Republicans—in that district, no matter where you live. We can stop Trump and the GOP agenda by working together NOW.

10/08/2018

If we drill into our House forecast, we expect the national House popular vote to favor Democrats by 7.8 percentage points, which translates to roughly 228 Democratic seats and 207 Republican seats. But what if the House popular vote shifts before Election Day? What if a blue tsunami crashes ashore and Democrats win nationally by 17 points? Or what if Republicans roar back in the polls and win by 1 point? What would happen to forecasted Democratic gains?

10/09/2018

Haley discussed her resignation with Trump last week when she visited him at the White House, these sources said. Her news shocked a number of senior foreign policy officials in the Trump administration. 

10/10/2018

Top Turkish security officials have concluded that the Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi was assassinated in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul on orders from the highest levels of the royal court, a senior official said Tuesday.

The official described a quick and complex operation in which Mr. Khashoggi was killed within two hours of his arrival at the consulateby a team of Saudi agents, who dismembered his body with a bone saw they brought for the purpose.

10/12/2018

Aronowitz was detained, arrested and interviewed by sheriff’s department, Zamora said. Cedillo said she was told initially that Aronowitz was being held on a “48-hour investigative hold” but that he was released two hours later. Cedillo said Aronowitz's court date is Nov. 8. Aronowitz declined to be interviewed.

10/12/2018

But in longing for an American past, white evangelical Protestants1 may be neglecting their future. As a group, they’re drifting further away — politically and culturally — from the American mainstream. There are growing signs that white evangelical Protestantism is no longer immune to the broader social and cultural forces that are reshaping the American religious landscape.

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